Weekend Forecast for 5/16-5/17

East Coast Overview: Southeast to east windswell expected for the weekend: High pressure built off the coast the later half of the workweek and is expected to continue through the weekend centered under Nova Scotia, setting up a pretty good fetch of east to southeast winds blowing into the Central Florida coast then pushing their way up into the mid-Atlantic and even having some effect into New York. Wind speeds in this fetch are only expected in the 15-20 kt range, meaning the period on the windswell will be pretty short, in the 8 sec range.  Still, it should be enough to push some fun rideable surf in for the weekend.  And if you’re following the models, something possibly stronger is suggested brewing over the Bahamas early next week.  So have a great time and keep an eye on the long range outlook.

Southeast: Saturday waist high southeast short period windswell moves in with southeast winds on it early making for chopped conditions. Sunday more waist high southeast windswell is expected with southeast winds still an issue, but better than being flat by a long shot.

Mid-Atlantic: Saturday shin high short period south-southeast windswell is expected at exposed breaks providing something to ride.  A little bit of that is to hold into Sunday with biggest sets to shin high, but likely not as big as Saturday.

Northeast: Saturday shin high short period south windswell is expected only at exposed south facing breaks.  Maybe some shin high sets  from due south to hold into Sunday, but that is likely a high estimate.

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West Coast Overview: Summer time surf for the weekend: The usual summer surf pattern is setting up, with high pressure forecast just off Central California generating a pressure gradient along the coast and producing north winds at 25 kts up near Cape Mendocino, which should be just enough to produce some fun sized short period windswell both Saturday and Sunday at exposed breaks. Southern CA, being more sheltered, will see less size, especially at shadowed breaks. No southern hemi swell is expected so look around and find a good north exposed spot early and take it for what it’s worth. Certainly better to go out than not.

Pacific Northwest Overview: Small for the weekend: Well summer is definitely trying to make a move north.  Virtually no swell producing fetch is forecast in the Pacific Northwest swell window for the weekend, meaning the surf will be small and barely rideable.  Maybe a good time to give lessons to some friends. At last the weather will be nice. Saturday knee high west-southwest local windswell is expected with calm winds early up north but out of the north down into Oregon. Sunday knee high plus west-southwest windswell is forecast with calm winds and clean up north but the north wind won’t give up in Oregon.

Northern CA: Saturday shoulder high northwest local windswell is expected with northwest wind somewhat of a factor early but not too bad. Sunday more local northwest windswell is forecast fading from chest high lighter northwesterly wind early.

Central CA: Saturday chest high plus local northwest windswell is expected with northwest winds providing some heavily texture at exposed breaks. Sunday that local northwest windswell is forecast at waist high plus with northwest winds still there but not too bad.

Southern CA: Saturday knee to thigh high local short period northwest windswell is expected at exposed breaks making for something to ride. Longboard might be a good idea. Sunday that windswell drop to knee high at the better breaks.  Make the most of it cause no southern hemi swell is expected.

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Hawaii Overview: South Shore is best hope: A weak pressure pattern has taken over the North Pacific offering no storms or gales to kick up surf for the North Shore. And trades are too light to produce any decent east windswell either. But fortunately a series of gales pushed through the Tasman Sea late last week into early this week generating 40 kt winds and 23-30 kts seas aimed well at Hawaii. Swell from these systems is to be in the water for the weekend, though Fiji is to have taken a pretty good chunk out of them by the time it arrives.  Still, it ought to be enough to make for some fun sized surf.  Have a great time.

North Shore: No rideable surf is forecast for Saturday or Sunday.

South Shore: Background southwest angled southern hemi swell expected at thigh to maybe waist high on Saturday and fading. Reinforcements move in on Sunday with a little more period to it providing thigh to waist high surf  possible at the right breaks.

East Shore: Quiet conditions to prevail over the weekend with no rideable surf expected.